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Technical Outlook August 18, 2016

18 August 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD traded in a tight range on the eve of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The currency pair went down right after the release of the Minutes and reached the MA55, allowing to open long trades according to our recommendations. However, the investors changed their mind then as the Minutes did not give any hint on the probability of interest rates growth this year. Fed is going to assess economic growth and inflation to take further decisions. EUR/USD did about 500 pips as result of yesterday’s fluctuations. We advise to pay attention to the EU inflation data and ECB Meeting Minutes today.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is balancing around the MA55. Thend lines were broken through and if the price holds those levels there is a probability of growth towards 1,15000 in the upcoming weeks.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 today or hold yesterday’s long trades if you did not fix them.



GBPUSD

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GBP/USD went down to the MA55 right after the FOMC Meeting Minutes release. There was a good opportunity to open long trades according to our recommendations. You could earn about 1000 pips. Today there is a probability of the currency pair growth to continue if UK Retail Sales data is better than expected. Otherwise, GBP/USD may decline sharply.

The downtrend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD meet a strong resistance and the downside tendency may resume.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 area. Place stops below the MA55.



AUDUSD

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AUD/USD declined yesterday but went upside today in the morning right after the Australia Labor Market data release. However, there is still no trend. AUD/USD is fluctuating in a wide range. We advise to avoid trading today.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. AUD/USD reached the main trendline and then reversed downwards. This dynamics may continue this week.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal although the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today.



USDCHF

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USD/CHF declined yesterday in the final minutes of Wednesday. The currency pair is close to a very important weekly support (trendline). Here is the main reason why USD/CHF is not able to go down further. If USD losses significantly its positions, the currency pair may cross this support.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. The situation completely met our expectations last week. We expect the situation to be opposite this week.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avid trading today in the morning.

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