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Technical Outlook August 25, 2016

25 August 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD declined yesterday although GBP/USD grew and Australian dollar was in a range. WE advise to pay attention to Ifo German Business Climate data which is to be released today. This statistics may give some additional support to EUR. It is to say that EUR/USD decline was also a result of fixing long trades on the eve of today’s Fed Head’s Yellen speech. There is a probability of sharp moves during this event and we give no trading recommendations as it is better to open positions after the speech.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. As we have previously mentioned, EUR/USD is in correction at the moment after a sharp upside momentum last week. There is a high probability of further growth towards 1,15000 in the next couple of weeks.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to wait for the Yellen speech to end until taking any decision if the price comes closer to the balance line.



GBPUSD

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GBP/USD continued its growth according to our expectations. There was no opportunity to open long trade as the price did not reach 1,31500. We expect the upside dynamics to end today as the correction pattern was formed on the chart in the morning. We advise to avoid trading GBP/USD today before the Yellen speech as any movement is possible.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. We expect GBP/USD to go down to 1,30000 this week.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of Yellen speech to take any decision. It is better to open trades if price moves closer to the balance line.



AUDUSD

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AUD/USD is still trading close to the key area at 0,75850/76000. The currency pair waits for the Fed Head’s Yellen speech which is to take place today in the evening. Market participants will pay attention to the event hoping for some new hints on the probability of monetary policy changes in the nearest future.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Second Doji on the Weekly chart indicated on a struggle close to the resistance level. The price is unable to cross the level and may reverse downside.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to wait for the Fed Head’s speech which is to be held today. If there is any movement after the event, you may take trading decisions close to the balance line.



USDCHF

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USD/CHF continued to grow. We advised to hold long trades and it was a good decision. Long positions were opened at 0,97000/97100. Price reached 0,97800 and even went higher yesterday. You could fix some profit. If you still have long trades, we advise to close them as today’s event may lead USD/CHF in any direction.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF closed above the trendline and the currency pair may continue to grow.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards. The price is above the MA55. We advise to wait until the Fed Head’s speech ends in order to take any decision. You may try then to open trades from the balance line.

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