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Technical Outlook August 26, 2016

26 August 2016
EURUSD

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Yesterday’s EU and US data had almost no impact on EUR/USD. German Ifo Business Climate was worse than expected as the final figure declined to 106,2. As for US Durable Goods Orders, this macroeconomic indicator increased to 1,5% from 0,4% last time. However, market participants wait for Yellen’s speech that is to take place today (we expected it yesterday).

It means that there is a possibility of high volatility during the event. We give no recommendations as it is necessary to open trades right after the event.

The uptrend is in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. We have seen a correction this week after a sharp momentum. However, the probability of reaching 1,15000 in the next couple of weeks is still too high.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is close to the MA55. We recommend waiting for Yellen’s speech before taking any decision. If it results in a tendency, we advise to open trades as close to the balance line as possible.



GBPUSD

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GBP/USD formed a downside correction according to our expectations. Yesterday’s pattern did its job. We expect any fluctuations during today’s Yellen speech. In addition, we advise to pay attention to UK Second Estimate GDP and US Prelim GDP for second quarter. Bloomberg experts forecast that UK data will remain unchanged. US Prelim GDP data may show minor decline to 1,1% from 1,2% previous estimate.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. The currency pair may decline below 1,30000 this week if Yellen’s speech impresses investors.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of Yellen’s speech to take decision. In case of any movement, we recommend opening trades from the balance line (or close to the area).



AUDUSD

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AUD/USD continued to fluctuate close to the key area at 0,75850/76000. Investors wait for the Yellen’s speech for further actions. The market participants will pay attention to what the Fed Head’s is about to say expecting for new hints on the probability of Interest Rates rise this year.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. Second Doji on the Weekly chart confirms a struggle close to the resistance level. The price is unable to cross the resistance and may change the direction to downwards.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We recommend waiting until the end of the Fed Head’s speech to take any decisions. If there is any movement, open trades close to the balance line.



USDCHF

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USD/CHF has done another upside momentum. Yesterday’s high were renewed for a couple of pips. The decision to fix positions was taken in the right time. The growth is slowing down telling us that the tendency is running out. The currency pair may decline according to the technical analysis. However, today we advise to pay attention to fundamental factors (Janet Yellen’s speech).

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. USD/CHF closed above the trendline and may continue its growth.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to wait until the end of Yellen’s speech to take further decisions. If there is any movement, try to open trades close to the balance line.

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