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Technical Outlook August 4, 2016

04 August 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD declined to the MA55 during European session offering opportunities to enter long trades. However, the rally was short. You had an opportunity to protect your trades. US PMI and ADP non farm payrolls were better than expected, providing USD with additional support. Finally, USD gained some positions against EUR and CHF. Other currency pairs traded in a tight range. Today We advise to pay attention to GBP.

The neutral trend is progressing on the Weekly chart as the price is moving around the MA55. There was a strong growth in the end of the last week and the upside tendency may continue in the next couple of days.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55 We advise to avoid trading today as the price is far from the balance line


GBPUSD

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GBP/USD was in a tight range during yesterday’s sessions awaiting for today’s Bank of England meetings. Investors expect the BOA to cut rates. This fact may evoke another downtrend. We advise to avoid trading before the Monetary Policy Committee pronounces its decision.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. There is a probability of growth after Friday’s US Labor Market data.

Bulls are dominating on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. It is better to avoid trading before the MPC pronounces its decision.


AUDUSD

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AUD/USD was in a tight range yesterday awaiting for some important events. Today in the morning the Bulls tried to dominate the market and they were able to gain some positions on the Australian Retail sales data although it was worse than expected. This upside momentum may be the last one before a downtrend although technical indicators still show the probability of further growth.

The uptrend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair crossed the trendline and closed the last week above it. We expect the growth to continue this week.

The Bulls are also dominating on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. The situation is unclear and we advise to avoid trading today.


USDCHF

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USD/CHF was in the uptrend during the whole week. We recommended short trades and they were unsuccessful. Stop losses triggered. We think that at the moment a long upside correction is forming. There is one confusing factor – the distance between the MA55 balance line and the price.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. USD is under pressure after Friday’s US Labor Market data.

The Bulls are dominating on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today as the price is far from the balance line.

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