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Technical Outlook August 5, 2016

05 August 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD continued to trade close to the balance line offering no opportunities to enter the market. There is a probability of correction towards the MA55 today. If it happens, there will be an opportunity to open trades. However, there is another problem – today’s US Labor Market data. We do not advise to open trades on the eve of this data as there may be tight flat before it. You may try find some opportunities after this data although we are not sure it happens.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. WE have seen a strong growth in the end of the last week. Positive dynamics may continue this week.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the Ma-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading because of the upcoming important US Labor Market data.


GBPUSD

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Yesterday’s Monetary Policy decision meet our expectations as the Bank of England decided to cut rates. The central bank also announced bond buying programme. This decision was even more significant for the market as it was unexpected. This fact resulted in more profound “dive” of GBP/USD. Today the currency pair may continue to fall after the US Labor Market data.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. The currency pair may grow after Friday’s US data.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today because of the upcoming US Labor Market data.


AUDUSD

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AUD/USD continues its moderate rally correlating with Oil growth. AUD has got support in time when other currencies are under pressure. We think that this situation is to end very soon. AUD/USD may decline on a significant upside “jump” of USD. This may happen today, e.g. on the US Labor Market data.

The uptrend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. AUD/USD broke through the trendline and closed list week above it. The growth may continue this week.

The Bulls are still dominating on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading as market awaits for the important US Labor Market data.


USDCHF

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USD/CHF paused its growth on the eve of the important US Labor Market data. This event is the main for USD this week as it may raise expectations of Interest rates increase in USA. USD/CHF may approach to the balance line today. However, we recommend opening long trades only if US Labor Market data is better than expected.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. USD was under pressure in the end of the last week and we expect no changes in the current market situation on the Weekly.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to avoid trading because of the upcoming US Labor Market data today.

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