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Technical Outlook July 1, 2016

01 July 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD broke all plans on short and long trades that we had described yesterday. The price went down below 1,11000, canceling buying opportunities. EUR/USD did not hold in the channel after the breakthrough of 1,11000, canceling selling opportunities. We may see a new ascending channel as the result of all maneuvers. Presently we treat this channel as the basis for the analysis.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. EUR/USD went down below the ascending trendline and closed there last week, forming a breakthrough.

As for the Hourly chart we may see the uptrend there as the MA-channel moves upwards and the price is above the MA55. You may try long trades from the MA55 area targeting 500 points (5figures)


GBPUSD

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GBP/USD resumed the downtrend according to our expectations. The main reason for this are hints of the head of Bank of England about the probability of interest rates decrease in the nearest future. Volatility is too high again. Daily range in GBP/USD was about 3000 points (5 figures) yesterday.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD collapsed because of the results of the “Brexit” Referendum. The downtrend is confirmed.

The Hourly chart shows the downtrend as the MA-channel turns downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise avoid trading GBP/USD because of high volatility.


AUDUSD

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AUD/USD was in flat yesterday, approaching close to the MA55. It is a good position for long trades with close stops. Today’s Australia data on PMI showed good results. There will be more PMIs during Friday coming from many countries.

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is above the MA55. AUD/USD still holds above the MA55 regardless the results of the “Brexit” Referendum. However, we see a Doji on the Weekly chart and this candlestick pattern may result in trend reversal.

The Hourly chart shows the uptrend as the price is above the MA55 and the MA-channel looks upwards. You may try long trades from the MA55 area, placing stop at 0,74100 targeting 0,75000.


USDCHF

01_07_2016_chf.jpg

USD/CHF forms the downtrend. Yesterday’s data was a bit worse than the expectations. However, it did not change the situation. You may try short trades from the MA55 as we can see clear trend in USD/CHF.

The Weekly chart shows neutral trend as the price is close to the MA55. There may be a trend reversal because of the results of the “Brexit” Referendum.

The Hourly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55 and the MA-channel looks downwards. You may try short trades from the MA55 area.

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