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Technical Outlook July 11, 2016

11 July 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD mostly was under pressure on Friday because of good US Labor Market stats. The number of created jobs increased significantly. There were sharp moves and we advised to avoid trading. The most important data for EU this week will be CPI stats. Today there are no significant events and we expect flat trading.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. EUR/USD resumed its decline according to the classic technical analysis.

As for the Hourly chart, there is the downtrend here as well as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. We expect flat trading today (or even smooth downwards slide). We advise to observe the market anyway.


GBPUSD

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GBP/USD fluctuated in a 1000 points range on Friday after the US Labor Market data. We advised to avoid trading. This week there is a very important event. The Bank of England will decide further monetary policy and the level of the interest rate. Mark Carney had recently made some hint on the possible rate cut. This event will surely attract market attention.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD continues to decline because of the results of the “Brexit” Referendum. Another reason for the downtrend is the expectation of a probability of the interest rate cut.

There is the neutral trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks no direction and the price fluctuates around the MA55. We expect flat trading today.


AUDUSD

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There was no decline in AUD/USD on Friday although it was expected as the situation was rather clear. It is difficult to say, what reason for such a strong support is. That is why, we advise to avoid trading. The price may target the trendline on the Weekly chart. We expect the decline after AUD/USD reaches this level.

There is still the uptrend on the Weekly as the price is above the MA55. AUD/USD may probably go towards the trendline and then bounce off it. We expect a moderate growth.


USDCHF

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USD/CHF traded upward on Friday and made sharp moves after the US Labor Market data according to our expectations. It is still above the ascending trendline on the Hourly chart. This dynamics may continue this week with a very high probability. We recommend looking at the descending trendline on the Hourly chart. Its eventual breakthrough will determine further fluctuations.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. This tendency is still weak requiring confirmation.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the price is above the MA55. The MA-channel looks upwards. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 if the price moves to this curve during European session. Targets are 400-500 points higher.

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