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Technical Outlook July 5, 2016

05 July 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD was within the Friday’s range during Monday’s session. Market activity decreased because of the US holiday. Today we expect normal fluctuations. We advise to pay attention to Eurozone retail sales and Service PMI data.

The uptrend almost runs out and the probability of trend reversal is high. However, technical analysis says it is still the uptrend in the game and there are some good opportunities to open long trades.

The Weekly chart shows no trend as the price is close to the MA55. EUR/USD is back to the MA55 and the broken trendline. The downtrend may resume according to the technical analysis.

The Hourly chart still shows the uptrend as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is close to the MA55. We recommend buying from the MA55 and placing stops to the breakeven area to avoid losses from trend reversal (if it happens).


GBPUSD

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Market activity yesterday was lower than usual because of the US holiday. Price is close to the support level at 1,3240. There is a probability of breakthrough of the area. Today we advise to pay attention to Mark Carney speech. There is a probability of breakthrough of 1,3230/40 during this event if Mark Carney touches monetary policy.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. GBP/USD confirms the downtrend because of the results of the “Brexit” Referendum.

The Hourly trend shows the downtrend as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. You may try open short trades expecting the breakthrough of 1,3230/40, targeting about 1000-2000 points. However, the risks are high as the stop should be wide.


AUDUSD

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AUD/USD grew yesterday regardless the holiday in the USA. Today in the morning we have seen some descending tendencies which allowed opening long trades. The RBA meetings results will determine further fluctuations and we recommend protecting your trades.

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is close to the MA55. The Weekly Doji is broken as we have seen no trend reversal last week. We expect another trendline test this week.

The Hourly chart shows the uptrend as the price is close to the MA55 and the MA-channel looks upwards. We recommend opening long trades from the MA55 area if AUD/USD resumes growth after the RBA meetings. The target is at 0,76000.


USDCHF

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USD/CHF made new weekly lows on Monday and tested the trendline on the Hourly chart. The current pattern indicates the probability of breakthrough. You may try to enter short trades before this event from the MA55 area and to protect your positions with stop loss before the cross of the line.

The Weekly chart shows neutral trend as the price is close to the MA55. This week will probably determine further trend direction.

The Hourly chart shows the downtrend as the price is close to the MA55 and the MA-channel looks downwards. We recommend short trades from the MA55 area. Target is at 0,96350.

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