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Technical Outlook July 8, 2016

08 July 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD was under pressure as the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was better than expected. Yesterday’s statistics rose confidence in today’s statistic good results. We expect that last slowdown in non-farm payrolls was a unique case and the situation changed for better. If today’s payrolls show better results, the US dollar will get more support.

There is the neutral trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55. EUR/USD is back to the MA55 and the broken trendline. There is a probability of further downtrend.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is close to the MA55. There is a triangle forming on this timeframe. I expect EUR/USD to break it downside. You may try short trades when the lower side of the triangle at 1,10500 is broken. However, I recommend avoiding trading today as there may be high volatility because of the important US data.


GBPUSD

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GBP/USD is back to the balance line and it is time to start opening trades. However, I do not recommend trading today as sharp fluctuations are probable because of the US Labor market data.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. GBP continues its downside way because of the results of the “Brexit” Referendum. The downtrend is confirmed.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is close to the MA55. You may try short trades from the MA55.


AUDUSD

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The pressure on AUD/USD grew as the Oil prices went down. If today’s US Labor market data is better than expected, USD will get additional support and the decline in AUD/USD may accelerate. We recommend avoiding trading today as there may be sharp fluctuations because of the US data.

There is still the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The Doji did not make any influence as there was no trend reversal. We expect another test of the trendline this week.

As for the Hourly chart, there is the neutral trend here as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price fluctuates around the MA55. I expect downside moves today.


USDCHF

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USD/CHF rose on 300-400 points. If you entered the market, you could take some profit. It was important to place stops below the trendline on the Hourly chart.

There is the neutral trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55. Further trend direction will be determined this week.

AS for the Hourly chart, there is the uptrend here as the price is above the MA55 and the MA-channel looks upwards. We advise to avoid trading today as there may be some sharp fluctuations on US Labor Market data.

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