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Technical Outlook June 15, 2016

15 June 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD went down to the 1,1200 area according to the expectations. I thought that the price drop would stop today. However, “Brexit” expectations start to influence EUR/USD. Euro may suffer from the results of referendum as well. Today the main event is the FOMC meetings. There is also some important market data.

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is above the Moving Average 55. EUR/USD goes back to the MA55 and may break the uptrend. The trendline and the MA55 are still holding which means that the trend is still upwards.

The Hourly chart shows the downtrend as the MA-channel looks down although the price is close to the MA55. This situation creates a good position for short trades. However, I recommend waiting until results of FOMC meetings.


GBPUSD

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GBP/USD marked new lows of this week. The pressure on the currency pair continues as the public opinion polls show the desire of British to leave the EU. This may lead to further decline in GBP/USD until the results of the referendum on “Brexit” will be given to the World. The event will take place on June 23rd, 2016.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is lower than the MA55. GBP/USD was unable to break the current tendency with another retest. Further dynamics was determined by Friday’s fluctuations.

As for the Hourly chart we may also see the downtrend here. The price is below the MA55 and the MA-channel goes downwards. The price tries to go to the MA55 area. There will be an opportunity to open short trades.


AUDUSD

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AUD/USD went down below 0,73800 yesterday offering an opportunity to enter short trades. Those trades could bring about 500 pips (5 figures after comma). The price declined to the lower boundary of a large triangle and is still there. It depends on today’s FOMC meetings whether AUD/USD breaks the lower line or stys inside the triangle.

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is higher than the MA55, although crucial moment has come. AUD/USD is on the “crossroads”.

The Hourly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. The MA-channel has changed its direction and now it looks downwards. I do not give any recommendations today due to the FOMC meetings expectations.


USDCHF

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USD/CHF goes on with the flat and we do not expect any interesting activities for now. It is possible that today’s FOMC meetings will bring some action.

The Weekly chart shows a crucial moment as the price fluctuates around the MA55. The price went down below the MA55 as I had expected. The decline in USD/CHF quotes may continue this week.

The Hourly chart shows no trend as the price fluctuates around the MA55 and the MA-channel goes with no clear direction. I do not give any recommendations because of this flat.

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