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Technical Outlook June 16, 2016

16 June 2016
EURUSD

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FOMC meetings resulted in the growth of EUR/USD. FED decided to postpone the rise of the interest rates due to the upcoming British Referendum. In addition, FOMC members revised their projections on future interest rate growth. Those facts gave EUR/USD some momentum to rally. However, there is a resistance level at 1,13600 (a trend line on the Hourly chart).

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is above the MA55. EUR/USD goes back to the MA55 and may break the current trend. The MA55 and the trendline support the uptrend and until they are broken, the upside tendency is “alive”.

The Hourly chart still demonstrates the downtrend as the MA-channel goes downwards, although the price is above the MA55. You may try long trades after the 1,13000 level will be broken. The target is at 1,13600. You may get around 500-600 pips as fundamental analysis favors the uptrend.


GBPUSD

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GBP/USD is still under pressure on expectations of “Brexit Referendum” in GB. Yesterday, there were almost no unpredictable fluctuations. GBP/USD waited until the end of FOMC meetings and resumed the downtrend.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. The retest today in the morning was “unable” to break the tendency. Further dynamics was established by Friday’s fluctuations.

AS for the Hourly chart we may also state the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. The MA-channel goes downwards. Short trades are preferable as we had a correction yesterday and the price is close to the MA55 area.


AUDUSD

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The currency pair fluctuates within the borders of the Triangle on the Hourly chart. The oil prices is falling down and influence all raw material sector. AUD/USD is also under pressure. There is a high probability that this Triangle will be broken downwards. There are almost no reasons for rally.

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is above the MA55. However, we may state a crucial moment for the upside tendency in AUD/USD. There is some incertitude in the market.

The Hourly chart demonstrates the neutral trend as the price fluctuates around the MA55 and the MA-channel is also neutral. The price is clamping in the Triangle. I consider short trades only as I expect that this Triangle will be broken downwards.


USDCHF

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USD/CHF has broken the “flat” in the morning and now it goes downwards. Technical analysis indicates the downtrend. In case if it continues to develop, the price will get the lower border of the channel.

The Weekly chart shows a crucial moment as the price fluctuates around the MA55. The price moved down below the MA55 as we had expected. This week the downtrend may dominate.

As for the Hourly chart, the price is in the downtrend as it is below the MA55 and the MA-channel goes downwards. I recommend to try short trade aiming the lower border of the channel.

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