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Technical Outlook June 17, 2016

17 June 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD showed some speed yesterday. The price didn’t break through the 1,13000 level which means that the basic conditions for long trade had not been met. The price went down on “Brexit” expectations (due to the latest opinion polls). However, in the evening we saw a reverse after the news on the assassination of a British parliamentary deputy. It is very difficult to predict further market reaction.

The Weekly chart still indicates on the uptrend as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair goes back to the MA55 and the tendency may be broken. The uptrend will dominate before the MA55 and the trendline hold the price.

The Hourly chart shows the uptrend as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. However, the trendline holds the price from above. We recommend to stay off the market today.


GBPUSD

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Yesterday’s tragic event in Great Britain resulted in GBP/USD fluctuations. Volatility is growing. I recommended short positions yesterday and they could be profitable. However, the upwards momentum could also break your strategy and “eat” your profit.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. The retest was unable to break this tendency. Further dynamics is established by Friday’s fluctuations.

The Hourly chart shows the uptrend as the MA-Channel goes upwards and the price is still above the MA55. GBP/USD breaks the trendline which means that the uptrend may continue. Long positions are risky as the price is close to the upper line of the channel. It is better to stay off the market.


AUDUSD

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AUD/USD broke the triangle downwards yesterday according to our expectations. However, the tragic events in the Great Britain influenced the currency pair as well. It was a good idea to open short positions on the MA55 break but the reverse could “eat” your profits. The triangle enlarges and now it is difficult to say which direction the price will go.

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is above the MA55. The crucial moment has come. AUD/USD’s further dynamics is hard to be predicted.

As for the Hourly chart, there is still neutral trend here as the price goes around the MA55 and the MA-channel goes in no clear direction. The price fluctuates within the Triangle and it is difficult to predict further direction of fluctuations. It is better to stay off the market.


USDCHF

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There is no trend dynamics in USD/CHF and we may state the flat. The current situation is unclear and we recommend to avoid any activity with this currency pair until there would be any trend.

The weekly chart shows the crucial moment as the price goes around the MA55. The price went down below the MA55 as we expected. It allows us to say that this direction will dominate in the end of the week.

The Hourly chart shows no trend as the price goes around the MA55 and the MA-channel is in a neutral position. It is better to stay of the market today.

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