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Technical Outlook June 20, 2016

20 June 2016
EURUSD

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The tragic event in the Great Britain last week resulted in some changes in public opinion. Some supporters of the “Brexit” have become its adversaries. EUR/USD has showed a sharp rally in the morning and stays close to the upper side of the MA-channel. The key events for the EUR/USD this week will be ZEW statistics on Tuesday, PMI data on Thursday and the Ifo data on Friday.

The Weekly chart shows the uptrend as the price is above the MA55. The price went down to the trendline and the MA55 but then bounced from those levels indicating the uptrend. We expect some further upside moves this week as the trendline was broken.

The Hourly chart shows the uptrend as the MA-channel looks upwards and the price is above the MA55. The price has broken all significant resistance levels in the morning and we expect some further growth through a correction.


GBPUSD

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We recommend to pay attention to “Brexit” Referendum this week. It takes place on Thursday. The assassination of British Deputy changed the alignment of forces. The majority is ready to stay within the European Union. Those events resulted in the GBP/USD growth in the beginning of the week. It is not my business to judge, but this assassination was right in time and it seems to be contracted.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. The retest was unable to break the downside tendency. Further dynamics was determined by Friday’s fluctuations.

The Hourly chart shows the uptrend as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. It is risky to open long trades at the moment as the price is close to the upper side of the channel.


AUDUSD

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The price has broken the triangle pattern upwards in the morning. Unfortunately, we had no opportunity to open any trade. This week we expect growth of AUD/USD. The rise in oil prices also supports this currency pair.

The Weekly chart still shows the uptrend as the price is above the MA55. The quotes hold their position above the MA55 and we expect that the growth will continue this week.

As for the Hourly chart, we may also state the uptrend as the price is above the MA55 and the MA-channel looks upwards. The fact that AUD/USD has broken the triangle upwards, determine the direction for the nearest future.


USDCHF

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The currency pair retests the trendline on the Hourly chart and may break it this time. Today you may open short trades.

The Weekly chart shows the downtrend as the price is below the MA55. The quotes moved down below the MA55 as we have expected. This week we assume that the prices will go down further.

As for the Hourly chart, we may state the neutral trend as the price is close to the MA55 and the MA-channel looks downwards. We recommend short trades after the trendline will be broken.

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