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Technical Outlook November 28, 2016

28 November 2016

EURUSD

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There was a change in trend on Friday and we think that the price already includes the odds on the Interest Rates hike during December’s FOMC meeting. Investors are fixing USD long trades as we have previously expected. Market participants understand that USD growth is done and they have started to fix trades. The currency pair is running upwards during the Asian session. The price is trying to go beyond the upper side of the MA-channel. If you had a position from Friday, it closed with about 250 pips of losses. There was an opportunity to open long trades after the trend line was broken through. However, we gave no recommendations about it.

The downtrend is still in progress on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55 balance line. The last candlestick’s body was short and there is a probability of further growth. We think that this correction targets 1,08500.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55 balance line. We advise to open short trades from the MA55 balance line area or even higher. Place stop losses below the trend line on the Hourly timeframe.

GBPUSD

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The currency pair is trying to accelerate its growth if GBP/USD continues this tendency, this correction is likely to start an uptrend. There are some important events upcoming that may influence market’s dynamics in the nearest future. We advise to pay attention to US Labor Market statistics on Friday, Italian referendum and Austrian Presidential elections, which are to take place on December. We advise to try long trades in the beginning of the week.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55 balance line. The currency pair is able to move towards 1,28000 this week. There is a probability, that GBP/USD is able to reach this level.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55 balance line. We advise to open long trades from the MA55. Place stop losses below this curve.

AUDUSD

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There was no further growth after Friday’s morning upside dynamics. We gave no recommendations and this was the right decision to avoid trading. There is a strong resistance at 0,74600-75000 area. We think that there is a probability of return towards the MA55 balance line later today.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55 balance line. The currency pair failed to reach 0,71800 but we still think that the currency pair is able to go downwards after some upside correction.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55 balance line. We advise to take no decisions today as the situations is still unclear.

USDCHF

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Stop loss triggered on Friday. You could lose about 200 pips. The trend line was broken through (the situation is similar to EUR/USD’s one). There was an opportunity to open short trades after this event. However, trading was too risky on Friday as the trend still looks upwards.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55 balance line. The currency pair reached 1,02000 but failed to touch the target that we have previously mentioned. We think that the currency pair is going to try to decline below the broken through trend line on the Weekly chart. In this case a downside correction may be even deeper than expected.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55 balance line. We advise to avoid trading today as the situation is still unclear.


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