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Technical Outlook October 12, 2016

12 October 2016
EURUSD

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The currency pair continued to decline after the FOMC members’ comments, which increased the odds on the Interest Rates hike in December. The probability of Interest Rates hike in December is about 70% at the moment. This fact influences market’s fluctuations. There was no opportunity to open short trades as the price did not go to the expected area. We advise to pay attention to the release of US FOMC Meeting Minutes today. This event may strengthen USD positions even more.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55 balance line. The currency pair left the range downwards and may continue to decline this week.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to open short trades from the 1,11000 area. Place stops at will.



GBPUSD

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The currency pair established new lows but then went back upwards at a great speed. There was a good opportunity to open short traders from the MA55 balance line targeting 600-700 pips of profit. We think that the price is going to offer such an opportunity within the next couple of hours. However, the main today’s event is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. It may result in further pressure over the currency pair. We also advise to look through the comments of MPC member Cunliffe as well as FOMC member Dudley. They may have some impact on the currency pair as well.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. There was no correctional growth and we expect the currency pair to decline this week.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to open short trades from the MA55 curve.



AUDUSD

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The currency pair had some growth in the morning on better than expected Australian data. However, this growth may be limited as market participants seems to buy USD. In addition, there is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes today in the evening. This event may strengthen USD positions.

There is still the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. We think that the currency pair may sharply decline in the nearest future. The downside scenario is still actual and we expect the currency pair to go towards 0,71800.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is close to the MA55 balance line. We advise to hold short trades from 0,76150-200 area.



USDCHF

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The currency pair continued its upside tendency during American session yesterday. There was no opportunity to open short trades from the MA55 balance line as the price did not reach the area. It went upwards instead offering no chance to enter the market. There is a probability of further USD/CHF growth today as market participant are waiting for FOMC Meeting Minutes today.

There I no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55 balance line. The currency pair had some growth and we expect this dynamics to continue this week.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to consider long trades from 0,98400-600 area.

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