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Technical Outlook October 17, 2016

17 October 2016
EURUSD

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The currency pair was in a downtrend on Friday according to our expectations. However, the situation was unclear. EUR/USD established new monthly lows. It is to notice that the main event for this week is the European central Bank meeting, which is to take place on Thursday. There is a probability that the ECB is going to change its current monetary policy in order to avoid lack of bonds. Today we advise to pay attention to the Eurozone CPI y/y data as it also may have some impact on fluctuations. It is also important to pay attention to US CPY data which is to be released tomorrow.

There is still no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55 balance line. The currency pair moved downwards last week. We expect the price to go upwards in the next couple of days to form a correction.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55 balance line. We advise to wait until the tendency reverses.



GBPUSD

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The currency pair continued to trade within a range of Friday. There is a probability of further decline. Today we may see if the currency pair is ready to continue its downside tendency. You may try short trades with low volumes. There is an important UK CPI y/y data tomorrow. However, it is to notice that GBP/USD had almost no reaction on this data previously.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55 balance line. The currency pair declined last week and we expect it to continue its downside tendency in the nearest future.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55 balance line. We advise to open short trades from the MA55 balance line.



AUDUSD

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The currency pair continued to grow on Friday. We gave a recommendation to fix your short trades. The currency pair stays close to the Weekly trend line for too long already. The trendline may be broken through in the nearest future. The downside scenario with targets at 0,71800 is still disputable.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55 balance line. There is no sharp decline of the currency pair. There is a probability that downside scenario will be cancelled.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. There was an opportunity to open long trades from the MA55 balance line. If you have missed it, it is better to avoid trading and wait for clearer signals.



USDCHF

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The currency pair is trading in a flat as the downside tendency has failed to develop. There was an opportunity to close short trades with no profit. It is probable that this flat tendency is going to dominate this week. We give no recommendations. It is better to wait for a clear trend to open trades.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55 balance line. The currency pair had some growth last week and broke our expectations. We expect USD/CHF to be trading with no trend this week.

There is no clear tendency on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal as the price is close to the MA55 balance line. It is better to avoid trading at the moment and wait for clearer signals.

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