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Technical Outlook September 30, 2016

30 September 2016
EURUSD

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The currency pair continued to be trading in both directions despite the better than expected US GDP q/q data. After this statistics, market participants expectations on the probability of interest rates hike grew above 60%. However, there was no significant decline of EUR/USD. Stock market was in a downtrend yesterday and this may be the reason why USD failed to go upwards. There is a large number of Eurozone and US data today. We expect the US data to influence further EUR/USD dynamics.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55. FOMC members decided to leave interest rates unchanged. We expect the currency pair to grow moderately.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55 balance line. We advise to take trading decisions only after the release of US data today.



GBPUSD

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The currency pair left the triangle downwards. It confirms that GBP is weak at the moment. However, there is a strong support level on the Weekly chart which holds all bearish attacks. We expect the currency pair to test this support several times today especially after UK and US data which is very important.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55 balance line. The currency pair has an opportunity to grow this week according to the technical analysis. However, we still see no signs of the uptrend.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55 balance line. We advise to take no trading decisions as there are no clear signals to pay attention to. UK and US data today are very important and may influence further fluctuations.



AUDUSD

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The currency pair confirmed that the breakthrough of the trendline on the Weekly chart was fake. In addition, we have seen AUD/USD to change its tendency to downside on the Hourly chart. This fact says to us that the upside momentum was too weak for the price to continue hold its positions at the same area. We expect US data to have considerable impact on AUD/USD today.

There is still the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55 balance line. The scenario for the currency pair to go towards 0,71500 was cancelled as the trendline on the Weekly chart was crossed. However, if this breakthrough was really fake, AUD/USD may reverse towards 0,71500.

The downtrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55 balance line. We advise to open short trades from the trendline or the MA55.



USDCHF

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The currency pair’s dynamics is rather strange. We advise to avoid trading despite the downtrend that is clearly seen on the chart. This tendency may be short term one. It is better to wait until the release of the US data today as it may have a considerable impact on fluctuations.

There is still no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55 balance line. We expected the currency pair to continue its downside tendency after FOMC meeting results. However, yesterday US GDP q/q data may change market participants’ moods.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes downwards and the price is below the MA55 balance line. It is better to take no decisions today as the situation is still unclear.

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