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Technical Outlook September 5, 2016

05 September 2016
EURUSD

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EUR/USD had some growth after Friday’s US Labor Market data. However, later the price declined on the eve of long holidays. Today is a Labor Day in the USA and the banks are closed there. US Friday statistics was worse than expected as the number of new non-farm payrolls decreased to 151 000 in comparison with the previous 275 000. US unemployment rate increased to 4,9%. As for the Average Hourly Earnings m/m, this data decreased to 0,1%. Those releases decreased the level of expectations of the Interest Rate growth this year. The currency pair may resume its growth after the volume is back.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55. The currency pair’s decline slows down and there is a probability of growth towards 1,15000 in the nearest future.

There is no trend on the Hourly chart s the MA-channel is horizontal and the price is close to the MA55. We expect lower volumes today and the currency pair may be trading within a range.



GBPUSD

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The currency pair had some growth after the release of the US Labor Market data on Friday. GBP/USD was trading in a more positive manner than EUR/USD. It is due to the fact that the currency pair gets some additional support from strong UK data. The Brexit Referendum results have almost no impact on the market at the moment. This week there is also UK manufacturing production and Services PMI. Those macroeconomic indicators will show the complete image of the current UK economics state. Today we expect some consolidation and movement towards the balance line.

There is still the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. There was no decline below 1,30000 as the UK data was stronger than expected. There is the probability of further growth towards 1,35000.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the balance line. We expect some consolidation today.



AUDUSD

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AUD/USD has some difficulties to grow and the decline may happen at any moment. The reverse may be sharp and it is very risky to open long trades at the moment regardless the fact that we still have the uptrend. The only opportunity to buy is possible if the uptrend becomes stronger. However, today US banks are on holiday and there are few chances that something important may happen especially during American session.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair went downwards according to our expectations. However, we may see dome correctional growth at the moment. The target for the downtrend is 0,71500 which is far from the current levels.

The uptrend is in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. WE advise to avoid trading today as the volumes are low.



USDCHF

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USD/CHF ended last week on the same level almost. The US Labor Market data provoked higher volatility on the market. However, there was no clear trend and the currency pair moved both directions. There is a high probability that USD/CHF is ready to decline. Anyway, we advise to avoid trading today as the volumes are too low due to the bank holiday in the USA.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55. The currency pair went upwards towards 0,99000. However, US Labor Market data broke the uptrend. We expect some decline in the nearest future.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. We expect consolidation during the day.

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