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Technical Outlook September 8, 2016

08 September 2016
EURUSD

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The currency pair restored partially towards the balance line. Today the main event is the European Central Bank Meeting which is to take place in the second part of the day. Investors expect no changes in the monetary policy. We think that the market’s reaction to the event is to be moderate. After weak US data we expect no changes during FOMC meetings which is to take place on September 20-21 2016. The situation is still unclear as both currencies are in the same situation.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is close to the MA55 balance line. There is the slowdown in the currency pair’s decline and we expect growth towards 1,15000.

The uptrend is still in progress on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55 balance line. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 area, placing stops below.



GBPUSD

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The currency pair is in a correction after significant growth. The main reason for the decline is the UK manufacturing data which was worse than expected. However, you had an opportunity to open long trades from the broken through trendline and fix them with about 200 pips profit as the price covered a 200 pips distance within a positive area. You had also an opportunity to move stops to the breakeven area. The currency pair crossed another trendline yesterday indicating the probable end of the uptrend, although the MA-channel is still growing.

There is the downtrend on the Weekly chart as the price is below the MA55. There was no decline below 1,30000 as UK data was stronger than expected. There is the probability of the upside tendency to continue aiming 1,35000.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to avoid trading today as there is the European Central Bank meeting in the second half of the day, which may influence GBP/USD as well.



AUDUSD

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The currency pair renewed weekly highs and is trading within a limited range. Yesterday’s Australia GDP data q/q was worse than expected. This statistics had almost no influence on AUD/USD. There was no price correction towards the broken through trendline and there was no opportunity to open long trades. The price is approaching the MA55 balance line allowing to open long trades from it.

There is the uptrend on the Weekly chart as the price is above the MA55. The currency pair was in a downside tendency for the past three weeks according to our expectations. However, we may see some corrective growth at the moment. The target for the further decline is at 0,71500.

There is the uptrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel goes upwards and the price is above the MA55. We advise to open long trades from the MA55 balance line, placing stops below this curve.



USDCHF

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The currency pair was in a tight range yesterday and broke through lows for a couple of pips. We expect some decline of the currency pair today if the situation is favorable. The downtrend is clearly seen on the chart according to the technical analysis.

There is no trend on the Weekly chart as the price is fluctuating around the MA55 balance line. There was some growth towards 0,99000. However, US data was worse than expected and USD is under pressure at the moment as the interest rates raise expectations level is lower at the moment. We expect some further decline in the next couple of days.

There is the downtrend on the Hourly chart as the MA-channel looks downwards and the price is below the MA55. We advise to open short trades from the MA55 balance line placing stops above the curve.

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